نوع مقاله : علمی ـ پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشیار گروه جامعهشناسی مؤسسه آموزشی پژوهشی امام خمینی ره، قم، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
This article presents a descriptive, analytical, and documentary analysis of the demographic structure components and variables affecting demographic changes in Iran, with a focus on the outlook for the horizon of 1430. The study identifies two critical components of population composition and movement, for each of which there are important indicators. Population composition indicators include the heterogeneous distribution and density of the population, age and gender structure, ethnic and racial identity, while population movement indicators include fertility, population growth, aging, migration, urbanization, and marriage and divorce rates. The study suggests that if the current population trends continue, Iran will experience negative population growth by 1430. The research identifies four possible scenarios for Iran's population growth, including maximum growth, fertility stability, fertility reduction with a mild slope, and severe fertility reduction. The first two scenarios are deemed unlikely, while the third and fourth scenarios are more probable if cultural guardians and officials work to remove obstacles related to the marriage of young people and encourage the timely formation of families. The study highlights the accelerating factors of the population crisis and the unofficial statistics that suggest a drastic reduction in the population to less than 1%. The research concludes that Iran's population growth will be negative much earlier than the horizon of 1430. This study is significant as it provides insights into Iran's demographic changes and the outlook ahead, which can inform policymakers and stakeholders in developing strategies to address population-related challenges.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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